Welcome to the 262nd edition of Trade War.

Even with a possible pause on tariffs, US-China tensions over technology and supply chains continue to rise. Washington’s bombshell announcement on visa revocations could affect many of America’s 277,000 Chinese students. And what constitutes a connection to the 100-million-strong-member Chinese Communist Party?

With the future of exports in limbo, will household consumption prove China’s savior? And the ailing property market will have to play a bigger role as a growth driver once again.

American universities face financial reckoning with possible departure of Chinese students. A price war amongst Chinese electric vehicle makers has flared into a public spat between BYD and Great Wall Motor. And the reliance of the electric vehicle industry on rare earths is coming into stark relief as China continues to restrict exports.

Notable/In depth

• US risks technological isolation falling behind in global EV market

• Critical minerals country scoreboard shows China’s dominance

• New book on revolutionary Xi Zhongxun provides insights into his son Xi Jinping

There is no cooling off this trade war

With the future of many of Trump’s tariffs in legal limbo following the Wednesday ruling by the Court of International Trade, including the 30 percent levies recently imposed on China, one might think US-China tensions were in for a cooling-off spell. They would be wrong.

That’s because it’s become abundantly clear that Washington and Beijing aren’t just involved in a trade and tariffs spat, but instead are competing in a head-to-head, existential struggle over which country gets to rule the future of advanced technology and global supply chains.

In the less than one month since both sides issued a joint statement recognizing the importance of a “sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship,” Washington has warned companies not to use chips from Huawei, China’s national champion, and has restricted Beijing’s access to airplane technology, software used for advanced semiconductors, and chemical products. And in a bombshell move on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Washington would begin to “aggressively revoke” the visas of some of the 277,000 Chinese students in the United States, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in “critical fields.”

For its part, Beijing has threatened firms and individuals with its Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, if they “implement or assist” US curbs on Huawei. And most egregiously from Washington’s perspective, Beijing hasn’t lifted restrictions on the export of rare earths, following negotiations between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva earlier this month.

Trouble is, all these hostile trade actions make perfect sense in the context of the larger battle between the two countries over tech and supply chains. And that was obvious from the beginning. China’s dominance over rare earths is an incredibly important source of leverage over the United States and the rest of the world—one that it won’t give up willingly.

Now fissures in what the US president hailed as a “total reset” in relations are becoming public. On Friday, Beijing accused the United States of “[weaponizing] trade and tech issues” and “malicious attempts to block and suppress China.” And Trump vented in all caps on social media that China “HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US.

My answer to both sides: You should have seen it coming.